Seasonal trends favor bulls even as bitcoin ends April in a defensive mood

A new report reveals systematic insider trading on Polymarket's military and defense markets, where longshot bets win 51.8% of the time versus 14% baseline. Analysis of 435,000 contracts shows fewer than 1% of traders capture half profits, suggesting information asymmetry. Findings echo the alleged Green Beret Venezuela raid case, raising questions about prediction market integrity and regulatory oversight.

MARA Holdings is acquiring Long Ridge Energy & Power for $1.5 billion to fuel its AI data center expansion. The Ohio-based deal includes a 505 MW gas plant and 1,600 acres offering over 1 GW power capacity. The acquisition boosts MARA's capacity by 65% and adds $144 million in annualized EBITDA, with construction starting mid-2027.

Bitcoin circles $76,000 as geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's "most hawkish" meeting in years weigh on risk assets. US-Iran conflict drove oil to four-year highs above $120, intensifying inflation concerns. The Fed held rates steady with four dissents, the first since 1992, signaling reduced rate-cut prospects. Analysts watch Bitcoin's $75,500 support level closely amid weakening momentum.