Only 3% of traders drive prediction markets' accuracy, not the crowd, study finds
A London Business School study analyzing 1.72 million Polymarket accounts finds only 3% of traders drive price accuracy, contradicting the "wisdom of crowds" narrative. Most traders lose money to this informed minority. The research filtered luck from skill using coin-flip simulations, revealing 60% of apparent winners become losers on separate events. Insider trading poses regulatory risks, though skilled traders remain the market's backbone.
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