U.S.-Japan intervention revives yen carry trade fears for bitcoin

MarketsU.S.-Japan intervention revives yen carry trade fears for bitcoinCoordinated action sent the yen sharply higher, but bitcoin’s recent correlation suggests U.S. dollar strength, rather than the carry trade, may be the bigger risk.By James Van Straten|Edited by Stephen Alpher Aug 3, 2026, 2:46 p.m. 1 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX iconX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShowUSD/JPY reversed from nearly 164 to 156.5 after the U.S. joined Japan in coordinated intervention, reviving memories of bitcoin’s August 2024 sell-off.Despite fears that a stronger yen will pressure crypto, bitcoin’s 52-week correlation with USD/JPY reached minus 0.90, pointing instead to broad U.S. dollar strength as the likely driver.U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Sunday that the U.S. joined Japan in coordinated foreign exchange intervention last Friday, calling it a move to counter "disorderly yen movements." The USD/JPY pair almost hit 164 its weakest level since 1986 before snapping back to 156.5 on Monday. "We will not hesitate to participate in further joint intervention," Bessent wrote on X, adding that the U.S. "strongly supports Japan's decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen."For the crypto market, August 2024 marked a bloodbath caused by the unwind of the yen carry trade. When the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hiked interest rates to 0.25% unexpectedly that month, the yen strengthened, and BTC collapsed from roughly $62,000 to $49,000 in a week, roughly a 20% drawdown, as leveraged carry investors sold risk assets to cover yen-denominated losses.The BOJ held rates at 1% last week, while Governor Kazuo Ueda's flagged AI demand and yen weakness as the two factors pushing inflation above 2%. Different this time?However, with everyone expecting bitcoin to fall alongside a strong yen, CoinDesk analysis shows the opposite. Bitcoin's 52-week rolling correlation with USD/JPY had hi…

U.S.-Japan intervention revives yen carry trade fears for bitcoin

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