3 reasons Wednesday's Fed meeting is pivotal for BTC

Crypto Daybook Americas3 reasons Wednesday's Fed meeting is pivotal for BTCYour day-ahead look for July 29, 2026By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 29, 2026, 11:15 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX iconX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its rate decision at 2 p.m. ET today, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. Traders typically assign greater weight to FOMC meetings that come with updated economic projections and a “dot plot” of interest-rate forecasts. Today’s gathering lacks both. Yet the outcome still carries outsized importance for three reasons. Unusual uncertainty over the outcome: Markets are still assigning roughly a 35% probability of a rate increase, CME fed funds futures show. That level of indecision is rare so close to a decision. By now, traders have usually converged on a clear expectation of a hold, hike or cut. Citadel, one of the largest hedge funds in the world, is predicting an increase. The firm argues a move would end forward guidance as a policy choice, an outcome Chair Warsh has long favored.Bond yields are already rising: Both the 10-year and two-year Treasury yields have broken above key trendlines that defined the shallow pullback in place since 2023 (check the Daily Signal). With the breakout complete, the path of least resistance is now clearly established to the upside. Oil price resurgence: WTI crude oil prices have climbed nearly 20% this month, while peace talks between the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked. The combination points to the potential for a renewed increase in inflation, following the June relief, which was largely tied to the earlier oil-price selloff. This leaves the Fed with little room for dovish talk.If the Fed does raise rates or sound hawkish, the already buoyant bond yields could rise s…

3 reasons Wednesday's Fed meeting is pivotal for BTC

Coins in this story

Related stories

BNY targets $8.6 trillion transfer agency market on blockchain rails

Apple Sued After Fake iPhone Wallet App Drained $1.8M in Bitcoin

The inside story of how a hike in Hong Kong changed crypto trading forever