A crucial bitcoin market indicator is signaling that the worst of the crypto crash might be over

MarketsShareShare this articleCopy linkX iconX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailA crucial bitcoin market indicator is signaling that the worst of the crypto crash might be overThe metric shows bitcoin's market price is getting close to its realized fair value after the recent sell-off.By Omkar Godbole, James Van Straten|Edited by Aoyon Ashraf Jun 8, 2026, 12:02 p.m. 3 min readMake preferred on What to know: Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is nearing the historical bear-market bottom around zero.The metric shows that bitcoin's market price is approaching its realized fair value after the recent sell-off.Past cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022 saw major recoveries begin once the Z-Score entered this green accumulation zone.After a massive selloff last week, one of bitcoin's BTC$62,945.93 closely watched onchain metrics is approaching a threshold that has historically marked bear market bottoms.The metric is called the market value-to-realized value (MVRV) Z-Score. Every major bitcoin cycle bottom has coincided with the Z-Score touching or briefly dipping below zero (into the green zone, in the chart).And right now, it is knocking on the door of the zone that has coincided with the lowest point of previous bear markets. It happened in 2011-2012 when bitcoin saw its first major crash. It happened again in 2014 and late 2018. Most recently, it fell below zero in the second half of 2022, marking a price bottom that paved the way for a three-year bull run.What is the MVRV Z-ScoreThe metric compares the deviation of bitcoin's market value – what the token is worth right now based on the current market price – from it's realized price. The second figure, widely considered close to fair value, is obtained by averaging the prices of every bitcoin since the last time it was transacted onchain.When the market price is far above fair value, bitcoin is considered expensive relative to its own history. When the market price falls toward or below the fair value, bitcoin is cheap. The Z-Score tak…

A crucial bitcoin market indicator is signaling that the worst of the crypto crash might be over

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