The bond market is flashing a clear signal on interest rates. Bitcoin bulls should take note

MarketsThe bond market is flashing a clear signal on interest rates. Bitcoin bulls should take noteThe bond market is sending a signal that complicates prospects of a near-term bitcoin bull run.By Omkar GodboleUpdated Jun 18, 2026, 7:48 a.m. Published Jun 18, 2026, 7:08 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX iconX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShowA sharp flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, with the 10-year/2-year spread at its tightest since April 2025, is signaling a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance.Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations are making fixed-income assets more attractive relative to non-yielding risk assets like bitcoin.The Fed’s latest projections show policy rates staying higher through 2028, complicating prospects for a near-term bitcoin bull run. Something has drastically shifted in the bond market, and it's offering negative cues to risk assets, including bitcoin BTC$64,010.98.The gap between the U.S. 10- and two-year Treasury yields has narrowed to just 28 basis points, the tightest spread since April 2025, according to data source TradingView.That's what's known as yield curve flattening, and it's flashing "the clearest market signal that the Fed is getting more hawkish," according to Skanda Amarnath, executive director of EmployAmerica, a policy research organization focused on monetary, fiscal, and industrial-level policies.A more hawkish Fed generally means higher interest rates for longer, and that's bad news for bitcoin and other assets that offer no inherent yield. As expectations for higher interest rates firm up, fixed-income investments become more attractive relative to non-yielding risk assets like crypto, often pulling capital away.The flattening isn't isolated to the 10 and two-year spread either. The gap between 30-year and five-year yields has also narrowed to its lowest level since April of last year.The move marks a notable reversal from the start of the …

The bond market is flashing a clear signal on interest rates. Bitcoin bulls should take note

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