The bitcoin market has plenty of reasons to freak out, yet calm pervades

Crypto Daybook AmericasThe bitcoin market has plenty of reasons to freak out, yet calm pervadesYour day-ahead look for Aug. 4, 2026By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Aug 4, 2026, 11:23 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX iconX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.The multimillion-dollar Coldcard hack, anemic institutional demand, and uncertainty in the regulatory and macroeconomic environment are some of the pain points for the crypto market right now.Yet there are no signs of panic or stress in the market, at least not in the continued meltdown of bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV. The index is influenced by demand for options or hedging bets sought when traders fear uncertainty and wild swings.The BVIV has dropped to 36%, the lowest since May 31, and down from highs near 60% in early June. A market that doesn’t freak out on bad news is often said to be bullish, poised for a notable upswing.That said, volatility tends to be mean-reverting, rising after dropping below historical standards and falling when overvalued. The BVIV is now hovering at levels that have previously served as a floor, paving the way for a volatility boom. In other words, traders might want to be vigilant on the gauge, as any surge could be accompanied by a big directional move, bullish or bearish.For now, some factors seem to favor the bear case. For instance, institutional demand remains anemic. The U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs posted $61.53 million in outflows last week, snapping a three-week streak of tepid inflows. Moreover, USDT’s market capitalization, the largest among dollar-pegged stablecoins, fell to the lowest level since October, while USDC’s also remains in a downtrend. (check the Daily Signal).Real or inflation-adjusted returns on longer-duration Treasury notes have risen to the highest since 2008, denting the ap…

The bitcoin market has plenty of reasons to freak out, yet calm pervades

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