U.S. June CPI fell 0.4%, likely cooling move toward Fed rate hikes

MarketsU.S. June CPI fell 0.4%, likely cooling move toward Fed rate hikesThis morning's report could go a long way toward determining whether the Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its late-July meeting.By James Van Straten, Stephen Alpher|Edited by Stephen AlpherUpdated Jul 14, 2026, 12:43 p.m. Published Jul 14, 2026, 12:33 p.m. 1 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX iconX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShowHeadline CPI in June fell by a far larger-than-expected 0.4%.The core rate was flat versus expectations for a rise 0.2%.The news is likely to end the growing anticipation of a Fed rate hike in July.U.S. inflation in June came in far softer than forecast, likely putting on hold what were fast-rising expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate hikes.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline 0.4% in June versus economist forecasts for a decline of 0.1% and May's sharp rise of 0.5%.On a year-over-year basis, CPI was up 3.5% versus forecasts for 3.8% and 4.2% in May.Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat in June, versus forecasts of 0.2% and May’s 0.2% increase. On a year-over-year basis, core CPI rose 2.6% against expectations for 2.8% and 2.9% in May.Bitcoin added to earlier gains following the soft numbers, rising to $63,400, up about 2% over the past 24 hours. U.S. stock index futures also rose, the Nasdaq 100 up 1.25%.Bond yields fell sharply, the U.S. 2-year Treasury down seven basis points to 4.19% and the 10-year down five basis points to 4.56%.Already a key data point, June's CPI was of particular import after Fed Governor Chris Waller yesterday implied he would be in favor of an immediate rate hike were core CPI not to come down in this morning's report. Indeed, July rate hike probabilities yesterday had shot to as high as 42% from just 8% one month ago, per CME FedWatch.Investors will get to hear what Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh thinks about all of the above in roughly 90 minutes as he begins…

U.S. June CPI fell 0.4%, likely cooling move toward Fed rate hikes

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