Bitcoin has reached a deep bear-market valuation zone. The hard part may come next.

MarketsShareShare this articleCopy linkX iconX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailBitcoin has reached a deep bear-market valuation zone. The hard part may come next.Two widely watched gauges show capitulation, but the analyst flagging them warns the slow grind comes next.By Shaurya Malwa Jun 11, 2026, 4:34 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on What to know: Bitcoin is trading near its historically depressed 200-week average, a level typically seen late in bear markets, even after the hottest U.S. inflation reading in three years.Market sentiment is deeply negative, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index at 9 and major cryptocurrencies posting only shallow bounces that have not erased this week’s losses amid record ETF outflows.Hot headline inflation, fading odds of U.S. regulatory clarity and rising global interest rates, alongside geopolitical tensions and falling equities, are weighing on prospects for a swift Bitcoin recovery ahead of the June FOMC meeting.Bitcoin is trading near a level it has usually reached only late in bear markets, and it has held there even after the hottest U.S. inflation print in three years.Checkonchain data show BTC fell toward close to its 200-week average, a rough four-year trend line watched by long-term holders. The model puts bitcoin in the bottom 10% of its historical valuation range, a zone that has appeared only during the deepest parts of past bear markets.Bear market bottoms are a process, not an event.First, price-sensitive investors capitulate. Then comes the harder phase: months of sideways action that slowly wear down the conviction of those who remain.In our latest newsletter piece, @_Checkmatey_ examines the evidence… pic.twitter.com/ReSQFfqi5R— _Checkonchain (@_checkonchain) June 10, 2026 The mood in the market is just as washed out. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index - a measure of sentiment calculated using volatility, social media posts, and market volumes - sits at 9, deep in extreme fear, down from 11 last week and 48 a month …

Bitcoin has reached a deep bear-market valuation zone. The hard part may come next.

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