Bitcoin's inflation quagmire gets stickier as renewed MidEast conflict sends oil price soaring

Crypto Daybook AmericasBitcoin's inflation quagmire gets stickier as renewed MidEast conflict sends oil price soaringYour day-ahead look for July 8, 2026By Omkar Godbole|Edited by Sheldon Reback Jul 8, 2026, 11:15 a.m. 3 min readMake preferred on ShareShare this articleCopy linkX iconX (Twitter)LinkedInFacebookEmailMake preferred on SummaryShowThis is an excerpt from CoinDesk newsletter 'Daybook.' Sign up here, if you haven't already.Market analysts tracking the macroeconomy will find bitcoin BTC$62,222.88 in a particularly intriguing spot right now, characterized by conflicting sets of inflation signals. Compounding the uncertainty is the latest flare-up in the conflict with Iran and its effect on oil prices.Early this week, we noted how inflation breakevens — the bond market’s expectations for the cost of living over the next year and beyond — have come off sharply, weakening the case for Fed interest-rate increases. That’s a tailwind for BTC.But U.S. consumers are not in sync with markets, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday. They now expect inflation to rise to 3.7% over the next 12 months, up from 3.5% in May and the highest reading since September 2023. Looking forward for the next three years, expectations climbed to 3.3%, the most since June 2022. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said that the central bank remains committed to bringing inflation down to 2%, disappointing anyone who expects it to tolerate higher inflation or give in to White House pressure for rate cuts.Will the Fed focus on the breakevens, which are already at or below 2% at the short end, or on rising consumer concerns? The Fed itself tends to trust breakevens because they reflect institutional capital allocation, while consumer surveys frequently lag behind and can be heavily influenced by volatile everyday costs like energy and food. Hence, the argument that falling breakevens are bullish for bitcoin still holds. But the central bank may not entirely ignore…

Bitcoin's inflation quagmire gets stickier as renewed MidEast conflict sends oil price soaring

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